The Tyler Group Barcelona Hand and Gavel Economic: Keeping a Positive Outlook through the Present Economic Challenges

Many developing countries have muddled through from one economic crisis to another for decades, and a few only in recent years; but all have never felt as challenged as within the present global economic environment. With growing population being felt in urban centers , accompanied by increased unemployment, scarcity of resources and escalating prices, citizens can no longer feel as secure as before when life in general was more financially manageable and less socially turbulent. Natural calamities, on one hand, provide a real challenge, especially for nations which encounter them on a regular basis, aggravating their economic woes.

Yet in spite of what many people feel or perceive through the popular media, the overall reality portrays a brighter future for the global economy. We point to two factors that bring hope for a more stable and progressive economy in the future:

1. Levelling of the global economy for all countries to freely participate

Globalization, as it was originally designed by the engineers of the global economic program, has given a chance to many countries to participate actively in international economic activities due to the easing up of former trade and tariff restrictions. Developing and developed countries now have a healthier interaction through more trade interaction and exchange of technological expertise. The economic field is no longer an exclusive arena for the big countries to play in while the rest of the smaller ones struggle to survive among themselves.

This is proven by the fact that growth rates have increased for many developing countries: from Africa which is expected to attain 4.7% growth rate in 2014, to India which has a present robust 8.0% growth rate, and to East Asia which has shown consistent growth expected to average at 6.0% in 2014 and gain slightly in 2015 at 6.1%. This can only be a boost to the world economy as these regions are a rich source of raw materials for the rest of the globe. Allowing these once-undeveloped areas to the big picture will serve as impetus for more economic dynamism on a wider scale.

2. Political and financial leaders are the key to continued economic growth

Fiscal health is the major concern for all countries even before the exit of Greece from the EU and with unemployment still a big challenge everywhere, even in the US which had 7.0% unemployment late 2013 from 10% in 2010. However, inflation remains tame and could eventually slowdown and help spearhead the expected growth of the global economy.

Divisive politics and policies as well as adventurous economic and military expansionism exhibited by a few countries will put to the test the resolve of political and fiscal leaders as they steer the global ship through the turbulent seas ahead. Tensions among nations due to territorial conflicts will continue to challenge the community of nations as they try to stabilize the ship without causing it to implode from within. But if majority of the nations will exhaust all possible peaceful means to resolve conflicts, avoiding violent confrontation along national borders can be attained. As the world arbiter, the United Nations will have its hands full keeping destructive wars at bay.

The economic stability and overall security of the global community rests in the hands of a few leaders who are tasked to provide a vision of progress and sustainability not just into the next year but for a whole generation of citizens who will reap our present efforts at attaining worldwide political and economic security. With all the structures in place to allow nations to achieve this vision, all we need now is the individual and common will to work for that vision.

The Tyler Group: French economist Thomas Piketty’s grim view of the wealth gap

French economist Thomas Piketty’s new book challenges the belief that free markets will automatically produce extensive prosperity.

Thomas Piketty, the French economist who was one of those who popularised the idea of a privileged 1 per cent, rings this alarm in his new book: The US economy has started to decay according to the ways of aristocratic Europe of the 19th century. Diligent work will be of less importance while inherited wealth will become more desirable. The wealth of the few will undermine the foundations of democracy.

Capital in the 21st Century has captured great interest as US political leaders argue whether increasing income gap is an issue that needs action.

The 700-page volume has been celebrated as one of the most important economic opuses in recent years, citing data from the past three hundred year to prove that the wealthy are hoarding more of an economy’s income than before and that prevailing regulations will mean that it will only grow.

People who support this idea cite the book as evidence that the wealth disparity must be reduced. Critics, however, reject the idea as being that of a left-wing ideologue.

Last week, Piketty’s book climbed to the top of Amazon’s bestsellers.

Unearthing information from 300 years of economic data, tax records, 19th-century novels and modern TV programmes, Piketty questions the assumption that free markets automatically produce extensive wealth.

On the contrary, he believes that the rich will become richer and everyone else will have almost zero chance of catching up.

Investments in bonds, stocks, land and buildings — the “capital” referred to in his title – invariably grow more rapidly than the incomes of the masses. By its fundamental nature, capitalism generates inequality and can undermine the stability of democracies, Piketty argues.

Economists used to view the thirty years after WW II as evidence of capitalism’s capacity to create and distribute wealth. Piketty argues that the era was a historical eccentricity produced by two world wars and the Great Depression decimating the wealth of the old establishment. Piketty believes higher taxes on wealth can control the spread of inequality. Moreover, he thinks that college education for more people will sharpen their skills through and could help reduce the effect of “inegalitarian spiral.”

During an interview with The Associated Press, Piketty, 42, talked on the “dangerous illusion” of the meritocracy, and his suggested solutions for controlling inequality.

Here is an edited summary of the interview:

What is the effect of a growing wealth disparity?

The major concern for me is actually the efficient functioning of our democratic institutions. It simply does not work well with an excessive form of oligarchy where 90 per cent of the wealth is owned by an extremely small class of people. The democratic model has always been seen to function within a moderate level of inequality. I believe one main reason why electoral democracy thrived in 19th-century America better than 19th-century Europe is because you had greater distribution of wealth in America.

Your research reveals that profits on investments – capital – increase more rapidly than wages and economic growth. But many people are of the persuasion that greater inequality can help generate more growth.

When inequality reaches an extreme, it completely stifles growth. There was extreme inequality in the 19th-century and growth was markedly minimal. Because the rate of growth of productivity was only 1 to 1.5 per cent annually [in 19th-century Europe], and it was below the rate of return to wealth, which averaged from 4 to 5 per cent, leading to huge inequality of wealth. We need to realize that innovation and growth alone are not sufficient to reduce the effects of the wealth gap.

Are we on the path back to the Gilded Age?

No one can really be sure. The main point of the book is that we are inside a pilotless plane. We must find a natural procedure or method that can assure us that we will find ourselves landing on a safe, acceptable level.

Would the impact of wealth inequality matter if wages for the middle class were still increasing?

There are two great forces that are pressing on the middle class from both sides. One is the increase of the compensation for the highest executives, which means that the share of wages going to the middle and lower class is diminishing. That has been particularly true in the United States. The other force prevailing is that the share of a nation’s income going to the workers tends to decrease when the share going to capital is growing.

You consider meritocracy a “dangerous illusion.” That runs opposite the view of many people who believe the US economy works.

Our modern democratic model is founded on the assumption that inequalities will be due to merit more than pure luck or inheritance. In some cases, meritocratic arguments are utilized by the winners of the game to justify the value of unhampered inequality. I do not believe we can find any sound justification for giving people more than 100 times the regular wage in order to produce highly-efficient managers.

People in Europe and the US have a nostalgic view of the post-WWII era. We experienced expanding national prosperity that benefited the majority of people. Can we still get back to that?

It was in reality a transitory period because of the very exceptional conditions. Growth was considerably high, partly because of post-war reconstruction and population growth, as a rule, had been extremely large in the 20th century. This is certainly not an option for policymakers. The other main reason I think we should not be nostalgic is that one of the reasons the inequalities were lower in the 1950s and 1960s is that the world wars decimated some of the inherited capital that was the cause of the previous inequality.

Why do you think a wealth tax would dampen the destabilising effect of growing inequality?

Instead of imposing a flat tax on real estate assets, you would impose a progressive tax on personal net worth. You would minimize the property tax for those who are striving to begin creating wealth.

Every American politician believes education is the solution to inequality and immobility. Can more education provide the answer?

Ultimately, education is the most potent levelling force in terms of wealth distribution. However, it is not sufficient. We need education as well as taxation.

How did watching US television programmes such as House, Bones, The West Wing and Damages assist you in writing this book?

They contain stories that show us how you can get rich, get poor, and so on. The heroes of the shows are mostly holders of PhDs. They comprise the model of skill-based inequality … [The TV series are] like novels in the 19th-century. They can portray in an extreme manner a type of deep justification or profound satire of the structure of inequality in our societies.

Critics accuse you being motivated by a political goal.

This book contains historical facts. It is up to people what they want to do with it. It has four parts and the last part deals with policy implications … For me, this is one of the least crucial parts. If you do not agree with these 100 pages, that is perfectly fine with me. The main objective of the first 500 pages is to assist readers and decision-makers to come up with their own conclusions.

Prior to the production and publication of the research findings done by Piketty and his fellow researchers, economists depended on less precise parameters of inequality.

For instance, there is the Gini index, from Corrado Gini, an Italian statistician who initiated the concept in 1912.

The index measures income distribution using a scale of 0 to 1. Level zero signifies a condition where everyone has the same income. On the other extreme, Level 1 means that all income goes to a single person.

The Census Bureau declares the United States possesses a Gini index of 0.48, up from 0.40 in 1967. But without the tax data introduced by Piketty and others, it would be more difficult to assess what that change connotes.

At face-value, the minimal growth hides exactly how much money has accrued at the top 0.01 per cent.

The Tyler Group: Laws need to pick up with technology

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Lawmakers and the courts have got to shift fast to address the civil rights implications of up-and-coming technology in a far more attached age.

A federal appeals court changed as an appeal by the lawyers debated that proof from a GPS device placed on a defendant’s car in Vermont with no search warrant was improperly allowed in a trial.

Rather common sense would have been dictated that law enforcement would require court permission to utilize a device as intrusive as a GPS to track a suspect.

But in 2009, what seems like common sense was not the law back then, after an agent from the federal Drug Enforcement Administration placed a GPS device on then-drug suspect Stephen T. Aguiar’s car.

In 2011, Aguiar was convicted of conspiracy and distributing cocaine in 2008 and 2009. William Murray and Corey Whitcomb, both convicted on lesser charges, evidence from the GPS tracking was also introduced in their trials.

And not until 2012 that it didn’t happen while the Supreme Court ruled that police must acquire a search warrant prior to placing GPS tracking devices on a vehicle.

In their ineffective appeal ahead of the 2nd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals, the defence lawyers disputed evidence collected by means of the GPS devices with no a search warrant despoiled Fourth Amendment protection against unreasonable searches and seizures.

The appellate court acknowledged in its ruling, “The GPS device was used to track Aguiar’s vehicles on public thoroughfares, with technology undertaking an activity that police officers would have physically performed in the past.”

However the court said the U.S. Supreme Court ruling that planting a GPS device on vehicles to track movements amounts to a search, thus requiring a court-approved search warrant until three years after Vermont incident.

The ruling, in effect, says that in 2009 the law had yet to catch up to the growing use of a technology by law enforcement.

The high court ruling demonstrates how analysis of the law can become accustomed to the spread of new technology; nevertheless the pace needs to rise up.

The stand of innovation these days means that more than a few generations of a technology can come online in three years with new challenges.

Those assigned with saving Americans’ constitutional rights should keep up with the pace of promising technology.

The Tyler Group: Lending to SME sector seen to grow in 2013

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Two main banks say demand is the principal factor

Recent credit approvals and releases for small and medium-sized companies are expected to be slightly up in 2013 in comparison to 2012, as reported by senior officials of AIB and Bank of Ireland.

However, both Gerry Prizeman, small business and agriculture top official at the Bank of Ireland, and John Irwin, who leads strategy and enablement of AIB’s business banking section, said the principal factor for lending to SMEs is demand for loans instead of the accessibility of funds.

The two reported at the release of a new newsletter of SME market events, the DKM/IBF SME Market Monitor, which reviews 15 published indicators for the sector to come out with an evaluation of prospective trends.

Introducing the report, Annette Hughes, DKM economic consultants Director, said local demand was crucial for the SME niche although it remained quite weak.

Proof of a rise in local demand — which includes consumer, investment and government disbursements — would propel the need for credit but “that remains to be seen”.

Although a few fresh inclinations have been heartening, including unemployment reduction and enhanced consumer and purchasing managers’ outlook, stable positive increase in local demand is not likely to occur soon.

Mr. Prizeman stated that whereas the decrease in the number of banks doing business in the Irish market would not aid the credit flow, the departing banks may have already been “emotionally absent” from the market and SMEs who were transferring their business to Bank of Ireland or AIB might face a more optimistic outlook when they start to transact with banks that are dedicated to the Irish market.

He stated that his bank approved loans of €3.6 billion in 2012 but that only €1.8 billion was availed of.

Mr. Irwin said that, in general, the quantity of capital out on credit to SMEs remains on the downtrend, which is not good for banks. Demand was the primary factor to be considered, he said.

Likewise, he mentioned that it was at times due to the fact that a creditable core business was maintaining real estate liabilities. Such conditions could be quite intricate; but they needed to be addressed for the general advantage of the economy. Several SMEs that claim they fail to get loan approvals in spite of running profitable companies fall under those conditions.

the tyler group barcelona, Eurozone business growth slows

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The pace of growth among businesses in the eurozone eased in October as the service sector slowed, a survey has indicated.

From 52.2 in September, the preliminary Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) from research firm Markit fell to 51.5.

Nevertheless, a reading above 50 still entails expansion, and activity has now developed for four months straight.

Markit said expansion was “broad-based” across the eurozone, although growth slowed in both Germany and France.

Germany had seen growth slow to a three-month low. It has been the chief economic powerhouse for the eurozone in the past years.

Markit also noted that the eurozone’s jobs market remained weak. Employment fell for the 22nd month in a row, with the rate of job losses picking up from September.

“The survey data have been running in positive territory for four consecutive months now and indicate that the eurozone economy expanded at a quarterly rate of 0.2% at the start of the fourth quarter, suggesting an ongoing, albeit sluggish, recovery,” said Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit.

Slow improvement

Spain was one of the hardest hit by the credit crunch and subsequent economic recession. Spain’s economy has been showing signs this week that it is bit by bit beginning to make progress.

Unemployment rate is one of the highest in Europe. Official figures show the country’s unemployment rate fell slightly in the third quarter of this year, to 26% from 26.3% in the previous quarter.

The Bank of Spain said On Wednesday that the country’s economy had emerged from recession after growing for the first time in more than two years.

The bank projected that Spain’s economy raised by 0.1% between July and September.

The eurozone came out from recession in the second quarter of this year when it grew by 0.3% following a record 18 months of economic contraction.

On the other hand, earlier this month, European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi said the recovery in the bloc remained “weak, fragile, uneven”.

He said further support for the banking sector could not be ruled out, and that the ECB was “ready to consider all available instruments” to maintain financial stability and ensure that recovery in the eurozone took hold.

There has been assumption that the ECB has the possible to offer one more round of not expensive, cheap, long-term loans to banks to keep the cost of credit down.

HOW THE UAE CAN IMPROVE ITS FINANCIAL LITERACY

Financial literacy is the awareness of how money functions and the capacity to handle one’s finances successfully. While it is not a new idea, it is a completely recent phrase frequently used in the UAE.

Why is this so? The reason, it appears, is that we are a not a financially knowledgeable nation.

This can be clearly gleaned from our amount of debt, which constantly increases. In spite of the fact that the Central Bank introduces more rigorous qualifications for individual lending in 2011, banks are still allowed to grant loans of up to 20 times a person’s monthly wage, with instalments not to go above 50 per cent of monthly wage.

The worth of personal debts in the country rose by 3.8 per cent to Dh270.7 billion between January and May this year alone, according to the Central Bank. That sum is over and above the Dh8.8 billion increase in individual loans reported during 2012...

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Counterfeit Cashier’s Cheque

It is more likely, if you’ve sold popular items on Craigslist or Ebay, that you have been contacted by people that raise the scheme if they can pay by a party cashier’s check. The typical story goes like this; on behalf of the buyer someone else will going to pay you for the reason that that person owes money from your buyer. To make it more believable, they will add some authentic sounding story like the buyer will say they are from a different country and that this is a way to make the payment easier.

As soon as you accept this conditions and the moment you receive the check you will realize that the amount of the check is more than the price purchased. Soon enough the buyer will ask you to send him the difference...


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